Increase Returns, Cut Risk: The Power of Smart Diversification + Simple Rules That Work
Funds that minimize correlations among holdings outperform by 4% annually, and new evidence shows simple trend-following still beats complex “optimal” models in real markets.
How to Spot Outperformers Using WACC
A new WACC methodology reveals which companies are deploying capital most efficiently—while a diversification analysis exposes the hidden “concentrators” quietly amplifying your portfolio risk.
US equities may be cheaper than you think + evidence that weaker debt monitoring leads to fewer defaults
In this week’s report: Why US equities are more attractive than the Fed model indicates - equivalent PE of ~15x vs. observed PE >25x and The PIK Debt Paradox: evidence that weaker debt monitoring leads to fewer defaults.
Short report “heat score” predicts impact + trading conflicting news stories for 30% return
The authors found that activist short reports with more sources have a bigger and more persistent negative impact on the underlying stocks.
Alpha from LLM-measured “distant” stock picks + the correct way to use Sharpe ratios
In this week’s report: How “distant investments” reveal true fund skill & how to judge Sharpe ratios without fooling yourself.
Separate signal from price: trading factors and fundamental growth
From smarter factor timing to redefining growth, fresh research shows investors how to separate lasting structural premiums from fleeting revaluations.
Who’s Still Earning Alpha? Patient Investors and Sentiment Traders
Long-horizon ownership predicts excess returns—especially in stocks short-term managers avoid. Plus: using global news sentiment to forecast equity index moves across 14 markets.
The Private Equity Illusion—and the Overlap Edge
New work shows PE’s outperformance largely boils down to leverage and appraisal smoothing—replicable with public small-cap + leverage. Meanwhile, funds with the lowest holdings overlap beat peers by ~1.2% a year.
Faith and Futures: Two Paths to Market Wealth
One paper shows why low-cost index investing wins over time—the triumph of compounding and belief. Another reveals how VC returns can be replicated (and beaten) with staged leverage on the Nasdaq-100.
ROIIC and Sector-Specific Factors: Smarter Drivers of Value
New research highlights ROIIC—not ROIC—as the forward signal for multiple expansion, and shows how sector-specific factors (like in REITs) sharpen attribution and cut false alpha.
The Prediction Trap: Why Investing Needs Causation, Not Just Forecasts
New research shows that framing stock selection as a classification problem (winner vs. loser) outperforms return forecasting, while López de Prado argues AI fails in investing because it chases correlations instead of causal mechanisms.
From ML Models to Market Structure: 3 Insights You Need
Columbia, Cornell, and Sussex researchers challenge core assumptions—showing how to train models for trading, why “good” loan terms signal weakness, and how price-weighting beats cap-weighting.
Kelly in the Real World: Why Textbook Formulas Overstate Leverage
Columbia research shows that when you apply Kelly to actual return series, optimal leverage shrinks 22–36% versus theory—especially in crisis periods and with less frequent rebalancing.
PE Goes Retail: Individuals in the Game
New research shows wealthy individuals now hold $1–2T in PE assets—and their returns rival institutions. The real driver? Advisor quality, not wealth.
AI Replication and the Future of Hedge Funds
New research shows AI-powered replication models track hedge fund performance with 89% accuracy—raising questions about fees, alpha, and the future of “2 and 20”.
The AI Edge: Lessons from Hedge Fund Adoption
From earnings call analysis to compliance stress tests, AI is reshaping hedge funds. But the real edge comes from building systems, not plugging tools.
The Bubble Premium Playbook
Bubbles aren’t just noise. A new model shows how to price speculation, exploit the upside, and manage exits for better risk-adjusted returns.